Australian universities should not expect an increase in foreign students on their campuses anytime soon, according to Keri Ramirez, managing director of sector data specialist Studymove. In an August 2026 webinar, Mr Ramirez explored the impacts of intertwining government policies, such as changes to post-study work rights, English-language requirements, NOSC allocations (New Overseas Student Commencements), and escalating visa application fees. He concluded that, taken together, those policy settings demand a new approach to international student recruitment.
The Studymove analysis – including a forecast for the rest of this year and into 2027 – is based on commencement data from the first six months of 2026 as well as current student visa trends.
Flat or negative growth for higher education
For four consecutive years, there has been no growth in number of new international students in higher education in Australia, and this year the projection is for a -4% decline in commencements.
“It has been four years of basically no growth in commencements,” said Mr Ramirez. “Although we don’t have a cap system technically, obviously the policy framework has been constraining growth. And effectively, we’re actually having a ceiling on the number of commencements of about 210,000 [students per year]. I think this clearly shows that the cake is not growing. In order to grow your piece of the cake, what institutions are probably having to do is just to get market share from competitors.”
Robust onshore progression but declining flows from overseas
Mr Ramirez points out that policy settings are also shaping offshore and onshore enrolment trends. Faced with a AU$2,500 visa application fee and higher visa requirements in general, fewer students are applying from their home countries (about -10%). In contrast, the number of foreign students progressing from one institution or level of study to the next within Australia rose about +9%. Students are making the most of their time and education in Australia by securing more than one visa – but this does not translate into more new international students.
The impact on universities is growing
Onshore flows of students are increasingly determined by price: many students are choosing to progress to private education providers (where annual tuition is about AU$24,000) rather than universities (where students can pay more than AU$40,000).
And while universities received more NOSC allocations in 2026 than in 2025, most did not reach their quota. In fact, only five universities reached 80% of their NOSC allowance. Mr Ramirez points out that government policies are depressing overseas demand, so NOSC allowances are a weak predictor of new enrolments.
Visa rejection rates are high but not for all source markets
Driven by a significant spike in month-by-month rejections from January 2026 on, Australian immigration officials rejected about 21,000 higher education student visa applications from offshore applicants in the first six months of 2026. Refusals during this period were mainly concentrated in three key markets: India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Should the rejection rates remain high, Mr Ramirez says international commencements could drop off by an additional -8% by the end of the year.
Recommendations for recruitment
With a smaller flow of incoming international students, Australian institutions must distinguish their offer not just from competitors in leading destinations, but also from each other. Market stabilisation means that growth will stem from gains in market share rather than in increasing the volume of new students.
Mr Ramirez advises universities to take a conservative and careful approach to revenue forecasting – fewer international students naturally reduces the tuition line, especially since most institutions are not benefitting from a significant uptick in domestic enrolments to mitigate the trend.
The policy environment is such that Mr Ramirez says that recruitment strategies should be laser-focused and based on a more nuanced understanding of diversification: reducing overreliance on established sources of students – but not by flinging a wide net across the globe hoping that it lands somewhere promising. Market characteristics of countries in emerging regions are unique and dynamic, and policy instruments affect demand differently not just at the regional level, but at the country level. A great deal of research is called for to determine whether a new market makes sense to invest time and money in.
Developing growth markets where institutions have developed brand image and strong relationships is a strategy made for these unpredictable times. Recruitment results will increasingly be determined by those relationships as they allow for more precise student targeting and understanding of outbound drivers.
“This sector has very, very strong roots,” concludes Mr Ramirez. “And those roots are actually based on people-to-people relations. For many, many years, this sector has been building relationships based on trust, based on understanding the needs of students, and at looking what is the best for students…we are not a commodity sector; we are a people sector.”
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