The new data, released in IIE’s 2026 Spring Snapshot, revealed that 59% of institutions experienced a decline in international applications for next year, building on the 17% decrease in new enrolments in 2025/26.
As such, of the 585 respondents, 63% said they anticipated a decrease in overall international student levels next year, with almost one in four expecting a “substantial decline”.
One of the many colleges experiencing a downturn is California State University (CSU), Fresno, where the assistant vice president, international affairs, Eddie West, said he was not surprised by the survey’s findings.
“The minority of US institutions which haven’t experienced a decline are almost surely those firmly atop the rankings hierarchy, flawed though such rankings typically are,” said West.
Among those anticipating the drops, 92% cited visa denials and delays as barriers to enrolment, with US travel restrictions (80%) and students opting for other destinations (77%) playing a significant role.
The downturn was most notable at the postgraduate level where 43% of institutions reported a “substantial decrease”, compared to 31% at the undergraduate level.
Strikingly, over 60% of institutions saw a drop in applications from India, largely due to soaring F-1 visa denials, as study visa issuance to Indian applicants plummeted 62% last year.
“Students are not rejecting the US; they are pricing in its volatility, and increasingly, the maths favours elsewhere,” said Sanjay Laul, founder of international recruitment platform MSM Unify.
“If anything, the survey may understate the sentiment shift on the ground.
“When a family is committing ₹50–60 lakh [up to US$70,000], often loan-financed, a coin-flip visa outcome is not a risk they can rationalise,” said Laul, adding that visa unpredictability had “fundamentally changed” the views of prospective students.
In 2024/25, there were more than 360,000 Indian students at American colleges, the largest source market comprising nearly a third of total overseas enrolments in the US.
Elevated F-1 refusal rates for Indian applicants have made outcomes feel arbitrary even for strong candidates
Sanjay Laul, MSM Unify
But after nearly 18 months of policy volatility under Trump’s second presidency – including widespread visa revocations, processing delays and the anticipated end of duration of status – Indian students are increasingly turning elsewhere.
American policy volatility is one of multiple factors driving the shift from the ‘big four’ to the so-called ‘big fourteen’.
Laul pointed to Germany as the “clearest winner” among Indian students, whose interest in the destination has doubled from 2022, where they see visa approval rates of 90-95% processed in as little as six working days.
Elsewhere, he highlighted the rising popularity of Ireland for its English-medium education and access to Europe’s tech employers, and the UAE, where Indian students make up over 49% of total international students: “surging on proximity and global branch campuses”.
On top of US visa volatility, Indian students have been particularly sensitive to changes to post-study work opportunities, with Optional Practical Training (OPT) and H-1B both thought to be under threat from the Trump administration.
Laul said uncertainty about the work streams “strikes at the very heart of the Indian value calculation, which has always been education-to-career, not education alone.”
In contrast, the snapshot survey showed the proportion of US universities reporting increased or stable applications from China rose from 58% in 2025 to 65% this spring, standing out as the only one of the top 15 source nations to see an increase.
Elsewhere, 70% of institutions said they would no longer recruit in countries impacted by Trump’s travel ban on 40 nations and territories – something that West said could be perceived as “playing the same transactional, zero-sum game” as the current administration.
While acknowledging the real budgetary pressures facing US institutions, West called the response a “classic case of short sightedness”, urging colleges to “build for a brighter future, which will come”.
“That includes paying attention – in some way, shape, or form – to parts of the world beyond the so-called usual suspects, and engaging for long-term, mutual benefit, not short-term enrolment gain.”
And despite largely being at the mercy of federal policy, West noted that institutions still had the power to communicate with students clearly and honestly, to minimise unpredictability as much as possible, and to build trust.
Moreover, Laul said the institutions responding with flexibility were the ones weather the storm most effectively, highlighting 2025/26 IIE data showing 72% of colleges offered deferrals to spring 2026, and 56% offered them to fall 2026.
He urged universities to “diversify within India, not just beyond it”, and to “sell outcomes, not brand”, reiterating: “the Indian family of 2026 is running a five-year career calculation.
Laul welcomed some positive signals from the survey, which revealed 84% of institutions still consider international recruitment a priority and nearly as many are holding or increasing recruitment budgets.
IIE deputy director of research, evaluation & learning, Julie Baer, said respondents’ continued investment in global engagement served as “a powerful reminder that US colleges and universities continue to see the value of international education”.
